ATLASWhat Is the Probability of a Stock Going Up? How ATLAS Explains It
ATLAS Team · Updated November 2, 2026
In ATLAS, the probability of a rise is the estimated chance that a stock closes higher than today over the next month, taken from a calibrated model, together with a range of normal outcomes. A 55% chance of a rise does not mean the stock will go up. It means that in situations like this one, a little over half went up and the rest did not.
Why stocks need probabilities, not predictions
Nobody knows what a stock will do next month. What can be measured is how widely it tends to move and in which direction on average. Probabilities describe that honestly: they say how likely a rise is and how big a normal move is, instead of pretending to know the answer.
The two numbers ATLAS shows
- Chance of a rise: the estimated probability that the closing price in about one month (21 trading sessions) is above today's. It comes from the stock's own recent drift and volatility, adjusted by a calibration so that the stated probabilities match what happened in the past.
- Normal range: the interval in which the price lands about half of the time (and a wider one for nine times out of ten). It is a measure of how volatile the stock is, not a promise of the bounds.
Live examples
These figures are computed today for the largest companies in the S&P 500 with the same model used on each company page.
Live ATLAS data · Data as of November 2, 2026
| Company | Price | Chance of a rise (1 month) | Normal 1-month range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apple AAPL | $338.18 | 53% | $327.65 – $351.89 |
| NVIDIA NVDA | $206.95 | 50% | $193.37 – $221.24 |
| Microsoft MSFT | $520.45 | 52% | $501.69 – $543.77 |
| Alphabet GOOGL | $283.50 | 48% | $258.23 – $308.08 |
| Amazon.com AMZN | $250.68 | 50% | $236.30 – $266.36 |
| Meta Platforms META | $611.51 | 49% | $566.88 – $657.22 |
Figures update through the day. Fair value is an estimate with a range and a confidence level, not a price target. Educational, not advice.
How to read a probability
- Around 50% is a coin flip: the model sees no clear tilt either way.
- A higher number is not a recommendation. A stock with a 60% chance of rising still falls 4 times out of 10.
- Compare the range with your tolerance. A narrow range means calm; a wide range means big swings both ways.
- The probability says nothing about how much you would gain or lose. Use it together with the range and with fair value.
What calibration means
A model is calibrated when its stated chances match reality. If the model says 60% on many occasions, about 60% of those should end up higher. ATLAS checks this against past outcomes and publishes the result on its track record page.
What a probability is not
- It is not a forecast of the price.
- It is not a buy or sell signal.
- It does not include news that has not happened yet, such as an earnings report. See how to read an earnings report.
- It is not the same as fair value. A stock can be below fair value and still have a 50% chance of rising next month.
Frequently asked questions
What does a 60% chance of going up mean?
That, in comparable situations in the past, about 6 out of 10 ended higher after a month. It also means 4 out of 10 did not.
Is the probability the same as a prediction?
No. A prediction says what will happen. A probability says how likely it is and accepts that it can go either way.
Why one month?
It is long enough for the drift to matter and short enough to be checked against what actually happened. ATLAS also shows 3 and 12 month horizons on each company page.
How do I know the probabilities are reliable?
By checking calibration against outcomes. ATLAS publishes its track record so you can judge it yourself.
See this on any stock in ATLAS
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