Apple's Q4 results beat estimates on iPhone sales but missed on China revenue, and coverage flags slowing growth. · Technology
Apple is the company at the center of the Q4 headlines: they describe an iPhone sales beat and a China revenue miss [1]. Its close was $331.90 on November 3 and $348.05 on November 4, up 4.87% between the two closes. The Yahoo headline says the stock falls, while the closes show a rise; the sources and the figures do not match, and the headline gives no detail on timing.
Price between closes
$331.90 → $348.05Close of November 3 and November 4
Fair value (ATLAS)
$196.37Fair range: $128.18 to $218.69The price ($348.05) is 77.2% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
53%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $336.42 and $362.84; 9 in 10, between $314.62 and $387.99.
Recent results (EPS)
Nov 22.05 actual vs 1.98 est.Beat expectations
Jul 302.02 actual vs 1.89 est.Beat expectations
Apr 302.01 actual vs 1.94 est.Beat expectations
Jan 292.84 actual vs 2.67 est.Beat expectations
Dividend
0.30% dividend yieldNext ex-dividend date: November 12, 2026 · 1.06 $ over the last 12 months
Named in a same-day headline: shares fell after earnings on a slowdown in total contract value. · Technology
Palantir is named in a same-day CNBC headline saying it sank after earnings on a slowdown in total contract value [2]. It is included because of that headline, not because of Apple's results. Its close was $175.40 on November 3 and $175.40 on November 4, a change of down 0.00% between the two closes.
Price between closes
$175.40 → $175.40Close of November 3 and November 4
Chance of a rise in 1 month
48%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $159.11 and $191.08; 9 in 10, between $135.27 and $224.75.
S&P 500 between the same closes (November 3 and November 4): 7,568.92 → 7,689.82 points, +1.60%.
Nasdaq-100 between the same closes (November 3 and November 4): 28,180.26 → 28,670.12 points, +1.74%.
What happened
A headline reports that Apple beat fiscal Q4 estimates on strong iPhone sales but missed on China revenue [1]. Another headline says the company's growth is slowing [3]. Apple's share price closed higher on November 4 than on November 3, a coincidence in time that the data alone cannot explain.
A Yahoo Finance headline says Apple beat Q4 estimates on strong iPhone sales but missed on China revenue. The same headline says the stock falls [1].
A Wall Street Journal headline says Apple's growth machine is slowing and that high prices might not save it [3].
A separate CNBC headline says Palantir sank after earnings as analysts pointed to a slowdown in total contract value [2].
What ATLAS data show
ATLAS's model estimates a fair value for Apple of $196.37, within a range of $128.18 to $218.69. The November 4 close of $348.05 is 77.24% above that estimate. These are model estimates, not promises or advice. The dividend yield shown is 0.30%. Over the same two closes, the S&P 500 rose 1.60% and the Nasdaq-100 rose 1.74%.
Two closes that coincide in time with news do not show that one caused the other. Broad indexes also rose over the same period. Data come from market closes and may change.
What you get with ATLAS
Fair value of each company, with its range, against today's price.
Chance of a rise in 1 month and the normal price range, from a calibrated model.
Earnings: next date, estimated EPS and surprise history.
Dividends and alerts by email when a company reports.
Closing prices, fair value, probabilities, earnings and dividends: ATLAS own data as of November 5, 2026. How we calculate fair value.
Information, not advice. This content is informational and is not an investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. ATLAS estimates come from statistical models using public data, can be wrong, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Disclaimer
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