British Gas sets minimum heating temperature for households away from home
Published November 14, 2026 · Updated November 14, 2026 · 2 sources
British Gas has advised on the lowest thermostat setting when away, as energy bill rises and cold weather raise concerns. Centrica and Aviva data included.
The exposed companies and what ATLAS says about each
There is no market close after the event yet: the reaction will be visible at the close of November 16. This page will be updated then with the actual change. In the meantime, here is the data for each company.
Owner of British Gas, the energy supplier whose heating advice and household bill exposure are the subject of the story. · Utilities
Centrica owns British Gas, the energy supplier whose heating advice and household bill exposure are the subject of the story. Its latest available close was £1.61 on November 13, before the event. ATLAS's model estimate of fair value is £2.56 (range £2.31 to £2.82), with the price 37.35% below that value, and the dividend yield is 3.67%.
Latest available close
£1.61Close of November 13
Fair value (ATLAS)
£2.56Fair range: £2.31 to £2.82The price (£1.61) is 37.4% below that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
53%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between £1.55 and £1.68; 9 in 10, between £1.45 and £1.80.
Home insurer, exposed to frozen pipe and water damage claims warned about in the story. · Financial Services
Aviva is a home insurer; it is included for its activity in the sector, not because the event affects it. Home insurers handle frozen pipe and water damage claims of the kind the insurer's warning describes. Its latest available close was £7.65 on November 13, and ATLAS's model estimate of fair value is £3.18 (range £2.86 to £3.50), with the price 140.63% above that value; the dividend yield is 5.34%.
Latest available close
£7.65Close of November 13
Fair value (ATLAS)
£3.18Fair range: £2.86 to £3.50The price (£7.65) is 140.6% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
54%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between £7.44 and £7.93; 9 in 10, between £7.04 and £8.38.
British Gas has told households the minimum temperature to set their heating at when they are away, as Ofgem raised energy prices by 4% in October and forecasts point to a larger rise in January [1]. The market reaction will be visible at the close of November 16, the first session that can reflect the event, and this page will be updated then.
British Gas has given households guidance on the lowest thermostat setting to use when they are away, aiming to avoid damage to the home without raising energy bills too much [1]. The report says leaving a house too cold for too long risks mould, mildew, frozen pipes, damaged walls and carpets, and floods [1].
Ofgem raised the price of gas and electricity by 4% in October, and forecasts currently predict bills could rise by as much as 24% in January [1]. According to the article, that would mean a rise in excess of £400 a year for a typical household, though it describes this as an average illustration [1].
Separately, a rural insurer has warned that frozen pipes can lead to water damage costing over £15,000 on average [2]. The article says forecasters predicted freezing temperatures across the UK from Thursday, November 12 [2].
What ATLAS data show
ATLAS's model estimates put Centrica's fair value at £2.56, within a range of £2.31 to £2.82, with the November 13 close of £1.61 sitting 37.35% below it. For Aviva, the model estimate is £3.18, within a range of £2.86 to £3.50, and the November 13 close of £7.65 is 140.63% above it. These are model estimates, not promises, and they carry no advice. The two companies differ in business and in how the model values them.
No close after the event exists yet; the reaction will be visible at the close of November 16 and the page will be updated then. A coincidence in time between an event and a price is not causality, and the data come from closes and may change.
What you get with ATLAS
Fair value of each company, with its range, against today's price.
Chance of a rise in 1 month and the normal price range, from a calibrated model.
Earnings: next date, estimated EPS and surprise history.
Dividends and alerts by email when a company reports.
Closing prices, fair value, probabilities, earnings and dividends: ATLAS own data as of November 14, 2026. How we calculate fair value.
Information, not advice. This content is informational and is not an investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. ATLAS estimates come from statistical models using public data, can be wrong, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Disclaimer
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