Operator of the Chipotle restaurants running the one-hour tattoo BOGO promotion on November 13. · Consumer Cyclical
Chipotle Mexican Grill operates the restaurants running the one-hour tattoo promotion on November 13 [1]. Its close was $35.92 on November 10 and $35.77 on November 11, a fall of 0.42%. That is a coincidence in time between two closes, not a proven effect of the announcement.
Price between closes
$35.92 → $35.77Close of November 10 and November 11
Fair value (ATLAS)
$26.55Fair range: $22.57 to $42.62The price ($35.77) is 34.7% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
49%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $32.92 and $38.62; 9 in 10, between $28.58 and $44.49.
Quick-service restaurant competitor that may face pressure from limited-time promotions in the fast-casual segment. · Consumer Cyclical
McDonald's is a quick-service restaurant competitor that may face pressure from limited-time promotions in the fast-casual segment; it is included for its activity in the sector, not because the event affects it. Its close was $282.17 on November 10 and $275.06 on November 11, a fall of 2.52%.
Price between closes
$282.17 → $275.06Close of November 10 and November 11
Fair value (ATLAS)
$241.44Fair range: $152.64 to $350.86The price ($275.06) is 13.9% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
51%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $262.85 and $289.34; 9 in 10, between $241.41 and $315.04.
Recent results (EPS)
Nov 43.57 actual vs 3.36 est.Beat expectations
Aug 43.38 actual vs 3.32 est.In line
May 62.72 actual vs 2.55 est.Beat expectations
Feb 113.12 actual vs 3.05 est.Beat expectations
Dividend
2.71% dividend yieldNext ex-dividend date: December 1, 2026 · 7.44 $ over the last 12 months
Restaurant chain competing for the same consumer spending during promotional windows. · Consumer Cyclical
Starbucks is a restaurant chain competing for the same consumer spending during promotional windows; it is included for its activity in the sector, not because the event affects it. Its close was $109.95 on November 10 and $109.03 on November 11, a fall of 0.84%.
Price between closes
$109.95 → $109.03Close of November 10 and November 11
Fair value (ATLAS)
$44.83Fair range: $33.24 to $62.79The price ($109.03) is 143.2% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
51%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $103.43 and $115.32; 9 in 10, between $93.91 and $127.00.
Recent results (EPS)
Oct 290.80 actual vs 0.73 est.Beat expectations
Jul 290.85 actual vs 0.65 est.Beat expectations
Apr 280.50 actual vs 0.44 est.Beat expectations
Feb 250.43 actual vs 0.16 est.Beat expectations
Dividend
2.28% dividend yieldNext ex-dividend date: November 13, 2026 · 2.48 $ over the last 12 months
S&P 500 between the same closes (November 10 and November 11): 7,520.93 → 7,618.18 points, +1.29%.
What happened
Chipotle announced the return of its "Tatted Like a Chipotle Bag" buy-one-get-one offer for Friday, November 13, from 3 to 4 p.m. local time [1]. The company said the earlier version helped drive the highest single-day sales in its history [1]. Shares of Chipotle and two restaurant peers are shown below as closing prices only.
Chipotle said guests who visit a restaurant with a tattoo can receive a BOGO entrée between 3 and 4 p.m. local time on Friday, November 13. Permanent ink, temporary tattoos and drawn-on designs all count [1].
Newsday reports the offer applies to in-restaurant purchases only, with a per-check maximum of five menu items. It does not apply to mobile, online, delivery or catering orders [3]. Staff decide at their sole discretion what counts as a tattoo, according to the release quoted by Newsday [3].
For this version, Chipotle teamed up with Wiz Khalifa on limited-edition to-go bags featuring designs based on some of his tattoos. They will be available at the Oakland restaurant at 3510 Forbes Ave., Pittsburgh, on November 13 from 3 to 4 p.m. ET while supplies last [1]. Rewards members can enter a sweepstakes for one of 13 bags from November 12 through November 14 [1].
A further outlet covered the story under the headline "Chipotle brings back tattoo BOGO deal on Friday the 13th" [2].
What ATLAS data show
ATLAS model estimates put Chipotle's fair value at $26.55, within a range of $22.57 to $42.62, with the price 34.70% above that value. For McDonald's the estimate is $241.44 (range $152.64 to $350.86), and the price is 13.93% above it. For Starbucks the estimate is $44.83 (range $33.24 to $62.79), and the price is 143.19% above it. These are model estimates, not promises, and they are not advice.
Two closes falling on the same day as a news item are a coincidence in time, not evidence of cause. The S&P 500 rose 1.29% between the November 10 and November 11 closes, so the three stocks fell on a day the broad index rose. Figures come from closing prices and may change.
What you get with ATLAS
Fair value of each company, with its range, against today's price.
Chance of a rise in 1 month and the normal price range, from a calibrated model.
Earnings: next date, estimated EPS and surprise history.
Dividends and alerts by email when a company reports.
On Friday, November 13, from 3 to 4 p.m. local time, guests with a tattoo can get a BOGO entrée [1]. It applies to in-restaurant purchases only, with a maximum of five menu items per check [3].
What counts as a tattoo?
Permanent, temporary and drawn-on tattoos all count [1]. Restaurant staff decide at their sole discretion [3].
What is the Wiz Khalifa connection?
Chipotle made limited-edition to-go bags with designs based on some of his tattoos, available at one Pittsburgh restaurant and through a rewards sweepstakes [1].
Closing prices, fair value, probabilities, earnings and dividends: ATLAS own data as of November 11, 2026. How we calculate fair value.
Information, not advice. This content is informational and is not an investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. ATLAS estimates come from statistical models using public data, can be wrong, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Disclaimer
ATLAS Signals
ATLAS Signals, every week
The week in the market, three stocks on ATLAS’s radar and what comes next. Get it every Monday.
By subscribing you agree to receive ATLAS Signals by email every Monday. You can unsubscribe with one click at any time. Privacy
ATLAS