Published November 12, 2026 · Updated November 13, 2026 · 3 sources
Leaders at Cop31 in Turkey warned of urgent action, and the UN chief called for a windfall tax on oil and gas firms. UK-listed energy shares are shown for context.
The exposed companies and what ATLAS says about each
Price change between the last close before the event and the latest available close. It is a coincidence in time, not a cause-and-effect relationship.
Integrated oil and gas major, directly exposed to any windfall tax on oil and gas producers and to climate policy. · Energy
Shell is an integrated oil and gas major, directly exposed to any windfall tax on oil and gas producers and to climate policy. Its close was £36.71 on November 11 and £36.65 on November 12, down 0.15%, a coincidence in time rather than a shown cause. Its dividend yield is 2.98%.
Price between closes
£36.71 → £36.65Close of November 11 and November 12
Fair value (ATLAS)
£47.88Fair range: £37.46 to £69.19The price (£36.65) is 23.5% below that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
53%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between £35.50 and £38.15; 9 in 10, between £33.30 and £40.66.
Integrated oil and gas major, directly exposed to any windfall tax on oil and gas producers and to climate policy. · Energy
BP is an integrated oil and gas major, directly exposed to any windfall tax on oil and gas producers and to climate policy. Its close was £5.67 on November 11 and £5.67 on November 12, down 0.00%, a coincidence in time rather than a shown cause. Its dividend yield is 4.42%.
Price between closes
£5.67 → £5.67Close of November 11 and November 12
Fair value (ATLAS)
£7.56Fair range: £5.56 to £13.36The price (£5.67) is 25.0% below that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
51%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between £5.41 and £5.97; 9 in 10, between £4.95 and £6.53.
UK North Sea oil and gas producer, likely subject to any windfall tax on oil and gas firms. · Energy
Ithaca Energy is a UK North Sea oil and gas producer; it is included for its activity in the sector, not because the event affects it. Its close was £2.56 on November 11 and £2.58 on November 12, up 0.94%, a coincidence in time only. Its dividend yield is 0.12%.
Price between closes
£2.56 → £2.58Close of November 11 and November 12
Fair value (ATLAS)
£3.48Fair range: £2.67 to £5.19The price (£2.58) is 25.8% below that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
50%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between £2.41 and £2.76; 9 in 10, between £2.13 and £3.12.
Leaders gathered in Turkey for the Cop31 climate summit warned that the world faces serious consequences without urgent action, and the UN chief called for a windfall tax on oil and gas firms [1]. Shell and BP are the companies whose business is directly tied to this proposal and to climate policy; Ithaca Energy is shown only as context for its sector.
The president of the Marshall Islands, Hilda Heine, told other heads of state that failing to give an overwhelming response to the climate crisis means "the world we know is over" [1]. She spoke on Wednesday as dozens of leaders gathered in Turkey for Cop31 [1].
Heine said overshooting the 1.5C Paris temperature target would mean waves eating away shores and floods that destroy towns, schools and hospitals [1]. The UN chief called for a windfall tax on oil and gas firms [1].
Inside Climate News reported that Cop31 opened on Monday in Antalya, and that the world remains deeply dependent on fossil fuels after three decades of climate negotiations [3]. It said scientists report a record global average temperature in recent days and that carbon dioxide emissions in 2026 are on track to reach another record high [3].
A Reuters headline says Cop31 leaders are trying out a new sales pitch for climate action: do it for the economy [2].
What ATLAS data show
ATLAS model estimates, which are not promises, put Shell's fair value at £47.88 (range £37.46 to £69.19), with the price 23.46% below that value. For BP the estimate is £7.56 (range £5.56 to £13.36), with the price 24.95% below it. For Ithaca Energy it is £3.48 (range £2.67 to £5.19), with the price 25.84% below it. These are model outputs and say nothing about future prices.
A coincidence in time between two closes is not causality, and the share moves shown cannot be attributed to the summit. The data come from closing prices, which may change, and ATLAS estimates depend on model assumptions.
What you get with ATLAS
Fair value of each company, with its range, against today's price.
Chance of a rise in 1 month and the normal price range, from a calibrated model.
Earnings: next date, estimated EPS and surprise history.
Dividends and alerts by email when a company reports.
The UN chief called for a windfall tax on oil and gas firms [1].
Why are Shell and BP mentioned?
Both are integrated oil and gas majors, directly exposed to any windfall tax on oil and gas producers and to climate policy.
Did the Cop31 news move share prices?
The sheet shows Shell down 0.15%, BP down 0.00% and Ithaca Energy up 0.94% between the closes of November 11 and 12. This is a coincidence in time, not evidence of a cause.
Closing prices, fair value, probabilities, earnings and dividends: ATLAS own data as of November 13, 2026. How we calculate fair value.
Information, not advice. This content is informational and is not an investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. ATLAS estimates come from statistical models using public data, can be wrong, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Disclaimer
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