Early Black Friday sales open at Walmart, Target, Ulta and Home Depot
Published November 9, 2026 · Updated November 9, 2026 · 3 sources
Retailers began early Black Friday sales with discounts of up to 50%. Here is what the sources say and the latest ATLAS data for five related companies.
The exposed companies and what ATLAS says about each
There is no market close after the event yet: the reaction will be visible at the close of November 9. This page will be updated then with the actual change. In the meantime, here is the data for each company.
Walmart is named in the story as a retailer running early Black Friday deals. · Consumer Defensive
Walmart is named in the story as a retailer running early Black Friday deals [1]. Its latest available close was $125.52 on November 6. The ATLAS fair value estimate is $48.05 (range $35.30 to $65.42), and the price is 161.20% above that value; next earnings are November 19 before the open, with estimated EPS 0.64.
Latest available close
$125.52Close of November 6
Fair value (ATLAS)
$48.05Fair range: $35.30 to $65.42The price ($125.52) is 161.2% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
52%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $119.99 and $132.00; 9 in 10, between $110.25 and $143.66.
Target is named in the story and ran an early Black Friday sale of up to 40% off, November 5 to 7. · Consumer Defensive
Target is named in the story and ran an early Black Friday sale of up to 40% off, November 5 to 7 [2]. Its latest available close was $158.41 on November 6. The ATLAS fair value estimate is $202.48 (range $150.96 to $246.25), and the price is 21.76% below that value; next earnings are November 18 before the open, with estimated EPS 2.04.
Latest available close
$158.41Close of November 6
Fair value (ATLAS)
$202.48Fair range: $150.96 to $246.25The price ($158.41) is 21.8% below that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
50%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $149.05 and $168.53; 9 in 10, between $133.68 and $187.92.
Ulta Beauty is named in the story as a retailer with early holiday sales running. · Consumer Cyclical
Ulta Beauty is named in the story as a retailer with early holiday sales running [1]. Its latest available close was $644.76 on November 6. The ATLAS fair value estimate is $475.96 (range $320.39 to $602.67), and the price is 35.46% above that value; next earnings are December 3 after the close, with estimated EPS 5.60.
Latest available close
$644.76Close of November 6
Fair value (ATLAS)
$475.96Fair range: $320.39 to $602.67The price ($644.76) is 35.5% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
51%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $609.55 and $683.66; 9 in 10, between $550.60 and $756.86.
Home Depot is named in the story as having launched early holiday sales. · Consumer Cyclical
Home Depot is named in the story as having launched early holiday sales [1]. Its latest available close was $343.47 on November 6. The ATLAS fair value estimate is $243.80 (range $157.43 to $309.55), and the price is 40.88% above that value; next earnings are November 17 before the open, with estimated EPS 3.86.
Latest available close
$343.47Close of November 6
Fair value (ATLAS)
$243.80Fair range: $157.43 to $309.55The price ($343.47) is 40.9% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
50%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $323.40 and $365.25; 9 in 10, between $290.33 and $406.85.
Owner of the Clinique brand, which the story names among discounted products. · Consumer Defensive
Estée Lauder Companies is the owner of the Clinique brand, which the story names among discounted products; it is included for its activity in the sector, not because the event affects it. Its latest available close was $110.06 on November 6. The ATLAS fair value estimate is $71.87 (range $45.27 to $84.25), and the price is 53.14% above that value.
Latest available close
$110.06Close of November 6
Fair value (ATLAS)
$71.87Fair range: $45.27 to $84.25The price ($110.06) is 53.1% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
49%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $101.90 and $118.38; 9 in 10, between $89.22 and $135.21.
Recent results (EPS)
Nov 20.72 actual vs 0.52 est.Beat expectations
Aug 190.39 actual vs 0.32 est.Beat expectations
May 10.91 actual vs 0.65 est.Beat expectations
Feb 20.87 actual vs 0.85 est.Beat expectations
Dividend
1.27% dividend yieldNext ex-dividend date: November 30, 2026 · 1.40 $ over the last 12 months
Target, Walmart, Gap, Home Depot and Ulta have launched early holiday sales with discounts of up to 50% on tech, beauty and home items [1]. The first session that can reflect the event is November 9; the market reaction will be visible at that day's close, and this page will be updated then.
NBC News reported that Target, Walmart, Gap, Home Depot and Ulta have already launched early holiday sales, with up to 50% off tech, beauty, home items and more. It said most of the sales run through Black Friday, but a few end within the next week [1].
Target's Early Black Friday Sale runs Nov. 5 through 7, with up to 40% off seasonal items such as select toys, sweaters, holiday lights and sheet sets. TODAY.com reported up to 50% off name brands such as Shark, Fitbit and JBL in kitchen and tech [2]. The article states it was paid for by Target [2].
Target's own holiday shopping page says its Deal of the Day offers a limited-time, one-day-only deal, with a new one available every day from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24 [3].
What ATLAS data show
ATLAS fair value figures are model estimates, not promises. Target is the only company in the group whose latest close, $158.41, sits below its estimate, by 21.76%. Walmart, Ulta, Home Depot and Estée Lauder closed above their estimates, by 161.20%, 35.46%, 40.88% and 53.14% respectively. These gaps describe the model's output and are not advice.
There is no close after the event yet. The market reaction will be visible at the close of November 9, and this page will be updated then. Even then, a coincidence in time between two closes is not proof of cause, and the data come from closes and may change.
What you get with ATLAS
Fair value of each company, with its range, against today's price.
Chance of a rise in 1 month and the normal price range, from a calibrated model.
Earnings: next date, estimated EPS and surprise history.
Dividends and alerts by email when a company reports.
Closing prices, fair value, probabilities, earnings and dividends: ATLAS own data as of November 9, 2026. How we calculate fair value.
Information, not advice. This content is informational and is not an investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. ATLAS estimates come from statistical models using public data, can be wrong, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Disclaimer
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