Mendoza's Senate gives final approval to new Hydrocarbons Law
Published November 10, 2026 · Updated November 10, 2026 · 4 sources
Mendoza's Senate gave final approval to a new Hydrocarbons Law covering royalties, incentives and a regime for unconventional development in Vaca Muerta.
What happened
Mendoza's provincial Senate gave final approval to a reform of the Hydrocarbons Law promoted by the provincial Executive [1]. The law updates rules in force for about 20 years and sets a specific regime for unconventional development in Vaca Muerta [1].
The Senate approved the reform by a wide majority, as the lower chamber had done before [1]. One source reports 31 votes in favor and 2 against, from the Fuerza Patria bloc, and says the project now passes to the provincial Executive for promulgation [2].
The law offers incentives to recover production in mature areas, sets a specific regime for unconventional development in Vaca Muerta and reinforces environmental requirements [1].
The text sets a reference royalty of 15% for public tenders, letting the province adapt charges to the technical and economic viability of each field [2]. It also allows the Executive to grant incentives with royalty reductions below 5% in specific projects, such as reactivating inactive wells, heavy crude production and enhanced or tertiary recovery [2].
Another source says the earlier law set a general royalty of 12%, with the option of reducing it to 5%, and that under the new rule companies compete for each area by offering a higher or lower percentage [3]. The same source says the PJ backed the law in general but opposed articles 28 and 29, linked to royalties [3].
Related companies and sectors
Sector relationship, not a demonstrated effect: ATLAS has no evidence that this story moves these companies' share prices. They appear for their activity in the sector and are shown with ATLAS data.
Chevron holds upstream interests in Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale, which the new provincial rules target. · Energy
Latest available close
$209.06Close of November 10
Fair value (ATLAS)
$197.06Fair range: $134.99 to $241.58The price ($209.06) is 6.1% above that figure: close to its fair value.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
52%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $200.32 and $219.46; 9 in 10, between $184.75 and $237.95.
TotalEnergies is an operator in Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale formation, affected by the new provincial regime. · Energy
Latest available close
$87.20Close of November 10
Fair value (ATLAS)
$112.10Fair range: $95.79 to $174.79The price ($87.20) is 22.2% below that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
52%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $83.91 and $91.23; 9 in 10, between $77.91 and $98.26.
Shell has upstream exposure in Argentina, where Vaca Muerta development rules and royalties are being revised. · Energy
Latest available close
$97.25Close of November 10
Fair value (ATLAS)
$162.69Fair range: $106.90 to $271.81The price ($97.25) is 40.2% below that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
52%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $93.44 and $101.87; 9 in 10, between $86.55 and $109.97.
Oilfield services provider active in Vaca Muerta drilling and completions, which could benefit from production incentives. · Energy
Latest available close
$49.93Close of November 10
Fair value (ATLAS)
$41.09Fair range: $34.46 to $62.51The price ($49.93) is 21.5% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
50%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $47.02 and $53.09; 9 in 10, between $42.21 and $59.13.
Oilfield services provider working in Vaca Muerta, where the law aims to revive production and drilling activity. · Energy
Latest available close
$31.70Close of November 10
Fair value (ATLAS)
$42.22Fair range: $26.50 to $51.03The price ($31.70) is 24.9% below that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
50%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $29.89 and $33.68; 9 in 10, between $26.89 and $37.44.
ATLAS model estimates place Chevron's price 6.09% above its fair value estimate and SLB's 21.51% above. TotalEnergies is 22.22% below its estimate, Halliburton 24.92% below and Shell 40.22% below. These are model estimates, not promises, and they are not tied to the story.
This is a sector relationship, not a demonstrated effect: there is no evidence that this story moves these companies' share prices. Figures come from closes and may change.
What you get with ATLAS
Fair value of each company, with its range, against today's price.
Chance of a rise in 1 month and the normal price range, from a calibrated model.
Earnings: next date, estimated EPS and surprise history.
Dividends and alerts by email when a company reports.
There is no evidence of that. The companies are listed for their sector activity in Vaca Muerta; it is a sector relationship, not a demonstrated effect.
What does the new law set for royalties?
One source says it fixes a reference royalty of 15% for tenders and lets the Executive grant reductions below 5% in specific projects [2].
Has the law been promulgated?
One source reports the project passed to the provincial Executive for promulgation after the Senate vote [2]. Another headline says it was promulgated [1].
Closing prices, fair value, probabilities, earnings and dividends: ATLAS own data as of November 10, 2026. How we calculate fair value.
Information, not advice. This content is informational and is not an investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. ATLAS estimates come from statistical models using public data, can be wrong, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Disclaimer
ATLAS Signals
ATLAS Signals, every week
The week in the market, three stocks on ATLAS’s radar and what comes next. Get it every Monday.
By subscribing you agree to receive ATLAS Signals by email every Monday. You can unsubscribe with one click at any time. Privacy
ATLAS