Nvidia shares and AI infrastructure stocks after the midterm election
Published November 6, 2026 · Updated November 6, 2026 · 4 sources
Midterm results prompted selling in AI power and chip stocks, per coverage. Nvidia's close on November 4 was below its November 3 close; here is the context.
The exposed companies and what ATLAS says about each
Price change between the last close before the event and the latest available close. It is a coincidence in time, not a cause-and-effect relationship.
AI chip leader whose stock price is the subject of the trend, with data center demand central to the sector debate. · Technology
Nvidia is an AI chip leader, and data center demand is central to the sector debate. Its close was $204.27 on November 4, down 1.17% from $206.69 on November 3. Its next earnings report is November 17 after the close, with estimated EPS of 2.49.
Price between closes
$206.69 → $204.27Close of November 3 and November 4
Fair value (ATLAS)
$157.25Fair range: $115.15 to $214.75The price ($204.27) is 29.9% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
50%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $191.02 and $218.26; 9 in 10, between $169.73 and $245.64.
Gas turbine and power equipment maker named in coverage as falling about 10% on AI power sentiment. · Industrials
GE Vernova makes gas turbines and power equipment, and coverage named it as falling about 10% on AI power sentiment [2]. The sheet shows $918.20 at both closes, November 3 and November 4, a change of down 0.00%, so the closes do not show the move described in the article.
Price between closes
$918.20 → $918.20Close of November 3 and November 4
Fair value (ATLAS)
$643.48Fair range: $286.69 to $1,429.89The price ($918.20) is 42.7% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
48%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $824.36 and $1,006.24; 9 in 10, between $690.82 and $1,200.75.
Power producer named in coverage as falling about 12% amid concerns over data center power demand. · Utilities
Vistra is a power producer that coverage said fell 12% amid concerns over data center power demand [2]. The sheet shows $139.59 at both the November 3 and November 4 closes, down 0.00%. It is due to report on November 6 before the open, with estimated EPS of 2.43.
Price between closes
$139.59 → $139.59Close of November 3 and November 4
Fair value (ATLAS)
$116.34Fair range: $85.48 to $158.33The price ($139.59) is 20.0% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
48%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $126.30 and $152.30; 9 in 10, between $106.99 and $179.78.
Power generator named in coverage as falling about 7% with AI infrastructure power exposure. · Utilities
Constellation Energy is a power generator that coverage said fell 7% with AI infrastructure power exposure [2]. The sheet shows $263.40 at both the November 3 and November 4 closes, down 0.00%. Its next earnings are November 9 before the open, with estimated EPS of 3.90.
Price between closes
$263.40 → $263.40Close of November 3 and November 4
Fair value (ATLAS)
$262.15Fair range: $222.83 to $301.47The price ($263.40) is 0.5% above that figure: close to its fair value.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
49%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $241.28 and $285.25; 9 in 10, between $208.00 and $330.89.
Memory chip maker named in coverage as slipping with other chip stocks on data center optimism. · Technology
Micron is a memory chip maker; a headline says it slipped with other chip stocks on data center optimism [3]. The sheet shows $855.10 at both the November 3 and November 4 closes, down 0.00%. Its next earnings are December 16, with estimated EPS of 37.93.
Price between closes
$855.10 → $855.10Close of November 3 and November 4
Fair value (ATLAS)
$2,256.84Fair range: $1,762.03 to $2,861.71The price ($855.10) is 62.1% below that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
47%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $761.93 and $941.01; 9 in 10, between $631.89 and $1,134.67.
Electrical equipment maker named in coverage as still seeing data center growth. · Industrials
Eaton makes electrical equipment and was named as still seeing data center growth [2]. The sheet shows $391.70 at both the November 3 and November 4 closes, down 0.00%.
Price between closes
$391.70 → $391.70Close of November 3 and November 4
Fair value (ATLAS)
$231.80Fair range: $179.48 to $299.36The price ($391.70) is 69.0% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
49%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $359.70 and $423.54; 9 in 10, between $311.19 and $489.55.
Recent results (EPS)
Nov 33.07 actual vs 3.54 est.Beat expectations
Jul 313.15 actual vs 3.08 est.Beat expectations
May 52.81 actual vs 2.73 est.Beat expectations
Feb 33.33 actual vs 3.32 est.In line
Dividend
1.11% dividend yieldNext ex-dividend date: November 10, 2026 · 4.34 $ over the last 12 months
S&P 500 between the same closes (November 3 and November 4): 7,568.92 → 7,689.82 points, +1.60%.
Nasdaq-100 between the same closes (November 3 and November 4): 28,180.26 → 28,670.12 points, +1.74%.
What happened
After Democrats won the Senate and the House in Tuesday's midterms, investors sold AI power stocks, and one report quoted analysts on a possibly more restrictive data center environment [2]. Nvidia closed at $204.27 on November 4, down 1.17% from $206.69 on November 3, a coincidence in time with the news, not a proven cause.
TIKR.com reported that GE Vernova fell 10% on the morning of November 4 after Democrats won the Senate and the House, and that Vistra fell 12% and Constellation Energy fell 7% [2]. It added that Eaton and Caterpillar are still seeing data center growth [2].
Evercore ISI analysts led by Amit Daryanani wrote that a more restrictive data center development environment could create incrementally more negative sentiment for AI infrastructure exposed names [2].
The same article noted that the new Congress does not sit until January, and that any bill curbing data center building would still need President Trump's signature or two-thirds of both chambers to override his veto [2].
A MarketWatch headline says Micron and other chip stocks slipped as election results strike at the core of data-center optimism [3]. A Barron's headline is titled "Why Nvidia Stock Can Ride a Democrat AI Data-Center Crackdown" [1].
What ATLAS data show
ATLAS model estimates are not promises. For Nvidia, fair value is $157.25 (range $115.15 to $214.75), and the price is 29.90% above that value. GE Vernova's price is 42.69% above its estimate of $643.48, and Vistra's is 19.99% above $116.34. Constellation Energy is 0.48% above $262.15, Eaton is 68.98% above $231.80, and Micron is 62.11% below $2,256.84.
Two closes close together in time do not show that one event caused a price change. Data come from closes and may change. The sheet shows several closes unchanged, so the intraday moves in the article may not appear in them.
What you get with ATLAS
Fair value of each company, with its range, against today's price.
Chance of a rise in 1 month and the normal price range, from a calibrated model.
Earnings: next date, estimated EPS and surprise history.
Dividends and alerts by email when a company reports.
At $204.27, down 1.17% from $206.69 on November 3. The S&P 500 rose 1.60% and the Nasdaq-100 rose 1.74% between those closes.
Could a data center bill become law soon?
One report noted that the new Congress does not sit until January, and any bill curbing data center building would need President Trump's signature or a two-thirds override of his veto in both chambers [2].
When does Nvidia report earnings?
November 17 after the close, with estimated EPS of 2.49.
Closing prices, fair value, probabilities, earnings and dividends: ATLAS own data as of November 6, 2026. How we calculate fair value.
Information, not advice. This content is informational and is not an investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. ATLAS estimates come from statistical models using public data, can be wrong, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Disclaimer
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