Integrated oil major whose earnings and margins are sensitive to crude prices, which the story notes are near $90 a barrel. · Energy
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil major whose earnings and margins are sensitive to crude prices, which the WSJ headline places near $90 a barrel [4]. Its close was $164.73 on November 9 and $163.37 on November 10, down 0.83%, a coincidence in time with the day's news and not a proven cause.
Price between closes
$164.73 → $163.37Close of November 9 and November 10
Fair value (ATLAS)
$137.52Fair range: $87.39 to $152.91The price ($163.37) is 18.8% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
51%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $155.43 and $172.42; 9 in 10, between $141.78 and $189.03.
Recent results (EPS)
Oct 304.23 actual vs 3.90 est.Beat expectations
Jul 313.52 actual vs 3.63 est.Fell short
Jun 13.23 actual vs 2.28 est.Beat expectations
May 110.52 actual vs 0.41 est.Beat expectations
Dividend
2.52% dividend yieldNext ex-dividend date: November 16, 2026 · 4.12 $ over the last 12 months
Independent oil and gas producer whose revenue tracks crude oil prices, a key input in the CPI energy component. · Energy
ConocoPhillips is an independent oil and gas producer whose revenue tracks crude oil prices, a key input in the CPI energy component; it is included for its activity in the sector, not because the event affects it. Its close was $134.47 on November 9 and $135.16 on November 10, up 0.51%.
Price between closes
$134.47 → $135.16Close of November 9 and November 10
Fair value (ATLAS)
$110.54Fair range: $78.40 to $142.12The price ($135.16) is 22.3% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
50%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $127.39 and $143.63; 9 in 10, between $114.53 and $159.75.
Recent results (EPS)
Nov 53.27 actual vs 3.06 est.Beat expectations
Aug 63.24 actual vs 2.93 est.Beat expectations
Apr 301.89 actual vs 1.72 est.Beat expectations
Feb 51.02 actual vs 1.10 est.Fell short
Dividend
2.49% dividend yieldNext ex-dividend date: November 16, 2026 · 3.36 $ over the last 12 months
Large US retailer whose sales and margins are exposed to consumer price trends measured by the CPI. · Consumer Defensive
Walmart is a large US retailer whose sales and margins are exposed to consumer price trends measured by the CPI; it is included for its activity in the sector, not because the event affects it. Its close was $125.66 on November 9 and $125.39 on November 10, down 0.21%. Its next earnings report is November 19 before the open, with estimated EPS of 0.64.
Price between closes
$125.66 → $125.39Close of November 9 and November 10
Fair value (ATLAS)
$48.63Fair range: $35.30 to $66.99The price ($125.39) is 157.9% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
52%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $120.03 and $131.73; 9 in 10, between $110.53 and $143.05.
S&P 500 between the same closes (November 9 and November 10): 7,549.94 → 7,507.65 points, −0.56%.
Dow Jones between the same closes (November 9 and November 10): 52,389.75 → 52,090.21 points, −0.57%.
What happened
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, with economists broadly expecting overall prices to rise 0.3 percent after a 0.6 percent jump in September [2]. The report is the last before the Federal Reserve's December meeting, and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both closed lower on November 10 [2].
The New York Times says the October CPI will show how price pressures are moving through the U.S. economy. It reports that inflation has accelerated this year as the war with Iran and an artificial intelligence investment boom have stoked price pressures [2].
Economists broadly expect a reprieve in October, with overall prices up 0.3 percent after a 0.6 percent jump in September. Core prices, which strip out volatile food and energy items, are forecast to have risen just 0.2 percent [2].
The agency will not release a year-over-year comparison because it was unable to collect data during last year's government shutdown, which ran from Oct. 1 through Nov. 12 [2]. Tuesday's report is the last before the Fed meets on Dec. 8 and 9, and November's report comes out the day after that meeting [2].
A WSJ headline says oil prices fell to $90 a barrel on Trump Iran comments while investors await the CPI report [4]. Reuters' headline says US consumer prices are expected to have risen at a slower pace in October [3]. CNBC's headline describes the report as a key one for where inflation stood in October [1].
What ATLAS data show
ATLAS model estimates put ExxonMobil's fair value at $137.52, within a range of $87.39 to $152.91, with the price 18.80% above that value. For ConocoPhillips the estimate is $110.54 (range $78.40 to $142.12), with the price 22.27% above it. For Walmart the estimate is $48.63 (range $35.30 to $66.99), with the price 157.85% above it. These are model estimates, not promises, and they are not advice.
Two closes that fall on the same days as a news event show a coincidence in time, not causality. Data come from market closes and may change.
What you get with ATLAS
Fair value of each company, with its range, against today's price.
Chance of a rise in 1 month and the normal price range, from a calibrated model.
Earnings: next date, estimated EPS and surprise history.
Dividends and alerts by email when a company reports.
Closing prices, fair value, probabilities, earnings and dividends: ATLAS own data as of November 11, 2026. How we calculate fair value.
Information, not advice. This content is informational and is not an investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. ATLAS estimates come from statistical models using public data, can be wrong, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Disclaimer
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