Severe storms and a Tornado Watch forecast for North Texas and the Panhandle
Published November 3, 2026 · Updated November 3, 2026 · 3 sources
Forecasts called for damaging winds, large hail and a Tornado Watch in parts of North Texas and the Texas Panhandle, ahead of Election Day, per local outlets.
What happened
A cold front was forecast to bring severe storms and wind gusts of 60 mph to North Texas overnight, with a Tornado Watch in effect for western and northwestern counties [1]. Separately, severe storms with damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain were possible in eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle [3].
FOX 4 reported that a cold front would bring severe storms and 60 mph wind gusts to North Texas overnight, with skies clearing across Dallas-Fort Worth before polls open on Election Day. A Tornado Watch remained in effect for western and northwestern counties, scheduled to expire at 11 p.m. [1]
For the I-35 corridor, storms could reach Tarrant and Denton counties by 10 p.m. and move through Dallas County overnight. Eastern parts of the FOX 4 viewing area could see storms from 1 a.m. to 5 a.m. [1]
KVII reported a Level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for severe storms in eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. The main threats were damaging wind gusts up to 75 mph and large hail, with heavy rain at rates up to 2 inches per hour and isolated flash-flood concerns. [3]
KVII said tornadoes were possible but the threat was low, and any tornado could become strong. Storms might reach Amarillo around midnight to 1 a.m. CT, and residents were urged to keep alerts on and take shelter immediately if a warning is issued. [3] A KXAN Austin headline refers to a front arriving Monday night into Tuesday. [2]
Related companies and sectors
Sector relationship, not a demonstrated effect: ATLAS has no evidence that this story moves these companies' share prices. They appear for their activity in the sector and are shown with ATLAS data.
Texas-based power generator; storm-related grid disruptions are relevant to its sector. · Utilities
Latest available close
$134.61Close of November 2
Fair value (ATLAS)
$114.96Fair range: $85.48 to $154.61The price ($134.61) is 17.1% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
48%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $121.81 and $146.85; 9 in 10, between $103.20 and $173.32.
Texas-based power generation and electricity retail company; weather-driven grid issues fall in its sector. · Utilities
Latest available close
$94.62Close of November 2
Fair value (ATLAS)
$109.79Fair range: $86.89 to $137.34The price ($94.62) is 13.8% below that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
49%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $87.66 and $101.74; 9 in 10, between $76.82 and $116.09.
Home and auto insurer; severe storms are a source of property claims in its markets. · Financial Services
Latest available close
$263.99Close of November 2
Fair value (ATLAS)
$661.27Fair range: $595.14 to $727.40The price ($263.99) is 60.1% below that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
52%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $252.70 and $277.33; 9 in 10, between $232.70 and $301.17.
Auto and property insurer; storm damage can generate vehicle and property claims. · Financial Services
Latest available close
$233.92Close of November 2
Fair value (ATLAS)
$262.84Fair range: $236.56 to $289.12The price ($233.92) is 11.0% below that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
52%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $224.60 and $245.16; 9 in 10, between $207.83 and $264.95.
ATLAS model estimates put Vistra's close 17.09% above its fair value estimate, while NRG Energy is 13.82% below, Allstate 60.08% below and Progressive 11.00% below. These are model estimates with their own ranges, not promises, and they are not tied to this story.
This is a sector relationship, not a demonstrated effect: there is no evidence that this story moves these companies' share prices. The figures come from closes and may change.
What you get with ATLAS
Fair value of each company, with its range, against today's price.
Chance of a rise in 1 month and the normal price range, from a calibrated model.
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Closing prices, fair value, probabilities, earnings and dividends: ATLAS own data as of November 3, 2026. How we calculate fair value.
Information, not advice. This content is informational and is not an investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. ATLAS estimates come from statistical models using public data, can be wrong, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Disclaimer
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