ATLAS News · Elections and markets
What voters decide on November 3, when results are expected, and the sectors and indices commentators cite, with ATLAS model estimates for six large companies.
US midterm elections take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, when voters decide all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats [1][3]. Commentators also discuss which sectors and market indices to watch around the vote [4][5].
Voters in 36 states will also elect governors, along with thousands of state and local contests [2][3]. Polls close at different times across the country, and the first results are expected after polls close on the East Coast [3].
Results will begin emerging after the first polls close at 6pm Eastern time, but some close races could take days to resolve [2]. Election night results are preliminary, and final tallies can take days or sometimes weeks as officials count mail-in, provisional and other outstanding ballots [2].
Midterm elections decide the makeup of Congress, which writes the country's laws and controls federal spending [2]. One source says control of Congress can influence how easily legislation moves forward and whether spending plans are expanded or blocked [5]. The same source links this to defence spending, energy investment, tax policy and regulation [5]. Another source reports that cost of living tops voters' concerns [2].
CNBC names defense, healthcare, banking and artificial intelligence among the industries it discusses [4]. IG says infrastructure, defence, healthcare and industrials may attract increased attention, and that technology, financials, healthcare and energy have traditionally been among the sectors most sensitive to regulatory change [5]. IG also lists the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, US Treasuries and the US dollar as markets that could come into focus [5].
Sector relationship, not a demonstrated effect: ATLAS has no evidence that this story moves these companies' share prices. They appear for their activity in the sector and are shown with ATLAS data.
defense contractor, a sector commentators cite among those they watch · Industrials
aerospace and defense manufacturer · Industrials
health insurer, part of the healthcare sector · Healthcare
pharmaceutical company, part of the healthcare sector · Healthcare
large bank, part of the financials sector · Financial Services
AI chip designer, part of the AI and technology theme · Technology
ATLAS model estimates put fair value at $820.20 for Lockheed Martin, with the November 2 close 21.59% below it. For RTX, UnitedHealth, JPMorgan, NVIDIA and Eli Lilly the closes are above the estimates, by 10.49%, 9.76%, 6.36%, 30.31% and 108.13% respectively. The latest closes on November 2 were 7,541.40 points for the S&P 500 and 27,989.82 points for the Nasdaq-100. ATLAS computed the change in the S&P 500 from the close of the last session before election day to the close of the Nth session, for the 5 past midterm election days, counting the first session on or after election day as session 1. Across those 5 past episodes, the range after 1 session was down 0.28% to up 0.78%, after 5 sessions down 0.44% to up 3.95%, and after 21 sessions down 1.55% to up 3.34%; this is a range of past episodes, not a forecast.
This is not a prediction or a recommendation; sector relationship, not a demonstrated effect. There is no evidence that the election moves these share prices. Figures come from closes and may change.
Start in under a minute. Information, not advice.
Results begin emerging after the first polls close at 6pm Eastern time on November 3, but election night results are preliminary and some close races could take days to resolve [2].
CNBC names defense, healthcare, banking and artificial intelligence [4]. IG names infrastructure, defence, healthcare, industrials, technology, financials and energy [5].
There is no evidence of that. The link is a sector relationship: the companies are included for their business, not because the election moves them.
Closing prices, fair value, probabilities, earnings and dividends: ATLAS own data as of November 2, 2026. How we calculate fair value.
Information, not advice. This content is informational and is not an investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. ATLAS estimates come from statistical models using public data, can be wrong, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Disclaimer
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