ATLASATLAS fair value
CHF 200.24
Below fair value · 36% discount
Range: CHF 134–CHF 298Fair valuePrice
Novartis (NOVN.SW)
Novartis stock price today, ATLAS forecast and fair value
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General · SIX Swiss Exchange · Switzerland
CHF 128.78▲ +1.02%
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026 · CHF
Chance of rising in 1 month
51%
that it ends higher than today in 21 sessions
0%coin flip 50%100%
This is just the summary. See everything on Novartis in ATLAS
ATLAS's own quantitative analysis, all in one place.
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
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On Novartis
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
- NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.
And for you
- ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
- AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
- Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
- Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
- Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.
Plans from €3.99 a month.
ATLAS estimates Novartis's fair value at about CHF 200.24 per share (reasonable range: CHF 134.39 to CHF 298.34). At CHF 128.78, the stock trades 36% below it.
It is calculated with a blend of a discounted cash-flow model and peer valuation multiples. Confidence in the estimate is medium. It is an estimate, not a promise: if the company's results change, so does its fair value.
ATLAS's model gives Novartis a 51% chance of finishing higher a month from now (21 trading sessions) than today: close to a coin flip.
In half of the simulated outcomes the price ends between CHF 122.56 and CHF 135.88; in 9 out of 10, between CHF 111.85 and CHF 148.89. Estimated annual volatility is 33%.
Price, last 12 months (weekly close)
Key numbers
- Market cap
- CHF 236B
- Market cap (USD)
- $285B
- P/E ratio
- 23.8
- Dividend yield
- 3.71%
- 52-week high
- CHF 132.68
- 52-week low
- CHF 97.05
- Revenue (12 months)
- CHF 56.7B
- Gross margin
- 75.0%
- Operating margin
- 34.6%
- Net margin
- 22.5%
- Beta
- 0.47
What this means
These are two different questions: fair value looks at the business (what it is worth given what it earns) and the odds look at the price over the next month. Novartis sits below fair value and its odds of rising over a month are close to a coin flip. An expensive stock can keep climbing and a cheap one can keep falling, which is why ATLAS shows the two readings separately.
Over the last 52 weeks NOVN.SW has traded between CHF 97.05 and CHF 132.68. Today it is 2.9% below that high and 33% above its low.
On the business: net margin is 22.5%; it trades at 23.8 times earnings.
Its beta is 0.47: it tends to move less than the market.
About the company
Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally.
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Comparable companies
Other companies in the same line of business:
Frequently asked questions
What is Novartis (NOVN.SW) fair value?
About CHF 200.24 per share according to ATLAS (reasonable range: CHF 134.39 to CHF 298.34). With the stock at CHF 128.78, it is 36% below it.
What is the chance NOVN.SW goes up next month?
51%: close to a coin flip. In half of the simulated outcomes, NOVN.SW ends the month between CHF 122.56 and CHF 135.88.
How big is Novartis and what is its P/E ratio?
Novartis's market capitalization is CHF 236B. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 23.8: you pay CHF 23.8 for each CHF 1.00 of yearly earnings.
Does Novartis pay a dividend?
Yes. NOVN.SW's current dividend yield is 3.71% at today's price (CHF 128.78).
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer