Marathon Petroleum redirects $4.2 billion in refinery-sale proceeds
Published November 12, 2026 · Updated November 12, 2026 · 4 sources
Marathon Petroleum plans to reinvest refinery-sale proceeds in Gulf Coast projects, while media headlines ask about gasoline prices. Market data from closes.
The exposed companies and what ATLAS says about each
Price change between the last close before the event and the latest available close. It is a coincidence in time, not a cause-and-effect relationship.
Refiner named in the story, redirecting $4.2 billion in refinery-sale proceeds after a strong third quarter. · Energy
MPC is the refiner named in the story, and it is redirecting refinery-sale proceeds toward Gulf Coast projects [4]. Its close was $402.84 on November 11 and $402.84 on November 12, a change of down 0.00%. The dividend yield is 0.99%.
Price between closes
$402.84 → $402.84Close of November 11 and November 12
Fair value (ATLAS)
$445.35Fair range: $401.59 to $750.20The price ($402.84) is 9.5% below that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
49%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $369.56 and $435.86; 9 in 10, between $319.28 and $504.50.
Recent results (EPS)
Nov 326.93 actual vs 25.74 est.Beat expectations
Aug 417.73 actual vs 13.95 est.Beat expectations
Jul 9-0.02 actual vs 0.04 est.Fell short
May 51.65 actual vs 0.75 est.Beat expectations
Dividend
0.99% dividend yieldNext ex-dividend date: November 18, 2026 · 4.00 $ over the last 12 months
Refiner whose margins depend on gasoline and diesel prices, as the story covers falling fuel prices. · Energy
Valero Energy is a refiner whose margins depend on gasoline and diesel prices; it is included for its activity in the sector, not because the event affects it. Its close was $363.71 on November 11 and $366.94 on November 12, up 0.89%, a coincidence in time only.
Price between closes
$363.71 → $366.94Close of November 11 and November 12
Fair value (ATLAS)
$297.49Fair range: $228.65 to $385.01The price ($366.94) is 23.3% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
49%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $336.12 and $397.38; 9 in 10, between $289.76 and $460.96.
Recent results (EPS)
Oct 2223.90 actual vs 21.28 est.Beat expectations
Jul 3012.54 actual vs 10.13 est.Beat expectations
Jun 18-0.08 actual vs -0.20 est.Beat expectations
Apr 304.22 actual vs 3.16 est.Beat expectations
Dividend
1.29% dividend yieldNext ex-dividend date: November 24, 2026 · 4.73 $ over the last 12 months
Refiner and fuel marketer exposed to gasoline and diesel price moves covered in the story. · Energy
Phillips 66 is a refiner and fuel marketer exposed to gasoline and diesel price moves; it is included for its activity in the sector, not because the event affects it. Its close was $258.68 on November 11 and $260.55 on November 12, up 0.72%.
Price between closes
$258.68 → $260.55Close of November 11 and November 12
Fair value (ATLAS)
$150.77Fair range: $104.71 to $205.48The price ($260.55) is 72.8% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
50%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $242.72 and $279.12; 9 in 10, between $214.44 and $315.92.
Recent results (EPS)
Oct 2814.08 actual vs 11.97 est.Beat expectations
Aug 59.41 actual vs 7.50 est.Beat expectations
Jul 161.17 actual vs 1.10 est.Beat expectations
Apr 290.49 actual vs -0.39 est.Beat expectations
Dividend
1.92% dividend yieldNext ex-dividend date: November 17, 2026 · 5.01 $ over the last 12 months
Convenience fuel retailer whose gasoline sales volumes and margins are tied to pump prices. · Consumer Cyclical
Casey's General Stores is a convenience fuel retailer whose gasoline volumes and margins are tied to pump prices; it is included for its usual business, not because the event affects it. Its close was $714.11 on both November 11 and November 12, down 0.00%. Its next earnings report is December 8 after the close, with estimated EPS of 6.01.
Price between closes
$714.11 → $714.11Close of November 11 and November 12
Fair value (ATLAS)
$388.30Fair range: $238.51 to $484.26The price ($714.11) is 83.9% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
51%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $679.11 and $753.92; 9 in 10, between $619.03 and $827.10.
Integrated oil company whose upstream and downstream results both respond to crude and fuel price trends. · Energy
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil company whose upstream and downstream results both respond to crude and fuel price trends; it is included for its sector activity, not because the event affects it. Its close was $166.71 on November 11 and $167.88 on November 12, up 0.70%.
Price between closes
$166.71 → $167.88Close of November 11 and November 12
Fair value (ATLAS)
$138.25Fair range: $87.39 to $152.91The price ($167.88) is 21.4% above that figure.
Chance of a rise in 1 month
51%Probability of closing higher than today within 21 sessions.Normal range: half of the scenarios end between $160.06 and $176.90; 9 in 10, between $146.49 and $193.29.
Recent results (EPS)
Oct 304.23 actual vs 3.90 est.Beat expectations
Jul 313.52 actual vs 3.63 est.Fell short
Jun 13.23 actual vs 2.28 est.Beat expectations
May 110.52 actual vs 0.41 est.Beat expectations
Dividend
2.45% dividend yieldNext ex-dividend date: November 16, 2026 · 4.12 $ over the last 12 months
S&P 500 between the same closes (November 11 and November 12): 7,619.38 → 7,599.69 points, −0.26%.
What happened
Marathon Petroleum and its midstream affiliate MPLX agreed to sell two refineries and associated midstream assets for $4.2 billion, and MPC said it intends to reinvest its proceeds primarily in the Gulf Coast [4]. Separately, NPR, KCRA and Marketplace have published pieces asking why fuel prices are moving, though only their headlines are available here [1][2][3]. Refiners and fuel sellers are the market angle.
Marathon Petroleum and MPLX agreed to sell the St. Paul Park refinery in Minnesota, the Mandan refinery in North Dakota and associated midstream assets for $4.2 billion. MPC is to receive $3.45 billion and MPLX $750 million. The transaction is expected to close at the end of 2026 [4].
MPC said it intends to reinvest its proceeds primarily in the Gulf Coast, provided projects meet its return thresholds [4]. In its Nov. 3 release, it reported third-quarter net income attributable to MPC of $7.4 billion, compared with $1.4 billion a year earlier [4].
NPR's headline asks why gasoline is suddenly under $4 a gallon [1]. KCRA's headline asks why gas prices are dropping and how low they will go [2]. Marketplace's headline says oil, gas and diesel prices are declining, but not all for the same reason [3]. Nothing further from these articles is available.
What ATLAS data show
ATLAS model estimates put MPC's fair value at $445.35, within a range of $401.59 to $750.20, with the price 9.54% below that value. For Valero the estimate is $297.49 and the price is 23.34% above it. Phillips 66 is estimated at $150.77, with the price 72.81% above. Casey's is estimated at $388.30, with the price 83.91% above, and ExxonMobil at $138.25, with the price 21.42% above. These are model estimates, not promises.
Price moves between two closes coincide in time with the news and do not show that one caused the other. The S&P 500 moved from 7,619.38 to 7,599.69 points between November 11 and November 12, down 0.26%. Data come from closes and may change.
What you get with ATLAS
Fair value of each company, with its range, against today's price.
Chance of a rise in 1 month and the normal price range, from a calibrated model.
Earnings: next date, estimated EPS and surprise history.
Dividends and alerts by email when a company reports.
What will Marathon Petroleum do with the sale proceeds?
MPC said it intends to reinvest its $3.45 billion share primarily in the Gulf Coast, provided projects meet its return thresholds [4].
Are gasoline prices below $4 a gallon?
The available sources are headlines only. NPR's headline asks why gasoline is suddenly under $4 a gallon, but nothing further can be confirmed here [1].
When is the refinery sale expected to close?
The transaction is expected to close at the end of 2026 [4].
Closing prices, fair value, probabilities, earnings and dividends: ATLAS own data as of November 12, 2026. How we calculate fair value.
Information, not advice. This content is informational and is not an investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. ATLAS estimates come from statistical models using public data, can be wrong, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Disclaimer
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