ATLASATLAS fair value
$638.99
Below fair value · 31% discount
Range: $457–$894Fair valuePrice
Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
Marathon Petroleum stock price today, ATLAS forecast and fair value
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · NYSE
$442.95▼ -5.88%
Prices as of Oct 26, 2026 · USD
Chance of rising in 1 month
50%
that it ends higher than today in 21 sessions
0%coin flip 50%100%
This is just the summary. See everything on Marathon Petroleum in ATLAS
ATLAS's own quantitative analysis, all in one place.
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
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- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
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On Marathon Petroleum
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
- NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.
And for you
- ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
- AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
- Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
- Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
- Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.
Plans from €3.99 a month.
ATLAS estimates Marathon Petroleum's fair value at about $638.99 per share (reasonable range: $456.78 to $893.89). At $442.95, the stock trades 31% below it.
It is calculated with a blend of a discounted cash-flow model and peer valuation multiples. Confidence in the estimate is medium. It is an estimate, not a promise: if the company's results change, so does its fair value.
ATLAS's model gives Marathon Petroleum a 50% chance of finishing higher a month from now (21 trading sessions) than today: close to a coin flip.
In half of the simulated outcomes the price ends between $418.01 and $470.28; in 9 out of 10, between $376.56 and $522.05. Estimated annual volatility is 34%.
Price, last 12 months (weekly close)
Key numbers
- Market cap
- $111B
- P/E ratio
- 13.0
- Dividend yield
- 0.90%
- 52-week high
- $493.98
- 52-week low
- $161.93
- Revenue (12 months)
- $154B
- Revenue growth (YoY)
- -4.4%
- Earnings growth (YoY)
- +31.2%
- Gross margin
- 7.5%
- Operating margin
- 4.3%
- Net margin
- 4.4%
- Return on equity
- 42.1%
- Free cash flow (12 months)
- $9.2B
- Beta
- 0.53
What this means
These are two different questions: fair value looks at the business (what it is worth given what it earns) and the odds look at the price over the next month. Marathon Petroleum sits below fair value and its odds of rising over a month are close to a coin flip. An expensive stock can keep climbing and a cheap one can keep falling, which is why ATLAS shows the two readings separately.
Over the last 52 weeks MPC has traded between $161.93 and $493.98. Today it is 10.3% below that high and 174% above its low.
On the business: revenue fell 4.4% year over year; net margin is 4.4%; it trades at 13.0 times earnings.
Its beta is 0.53: it tends to move less than the market.
About the company
Marathon Petroleum Corp. is an integrated downstream and midstream energy company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.
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Comparable companies
Other companies in the same line of business:
Frequently asked questions
What is Marathon Petroleum (MPC) fair value?
About $638.99 per share according to ATLAS (reasonable range: $456.78 to $893.89). With the stock at $442.95, it is 31% below it.
What is the chance MPC goes up next month?
50%: close to a coin flip. In half of the simulated outcomes, MPC ends the month between $418.01 and $470.28.
How big is Marathon Petroleum and what is its P/E ratio?
Marathon Petroleum's market capitalization is $111B. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 13.0: you pay $13.0 for each $1 of yearly earnings.
Does Marathon Petroleum pay a dividend?
Yes. MPC's current dividend yield is 0.90% at today's price ($442.95).
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer