ATLAS fair value
HK$1.60
Below fair value · 39% discount
China Merchants Commercial Reit share price today, ATLAS forecast and fair value
Real Estate · REIT - Office · Hong Kong Exchanges (HKEX) · Hong Kong SAR China
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026 · HKD
HK$1.60
Below fair value · 39% discount
55%
that it ends higher than today in 21 sessions
ATLAS's own quantitative analysis, all in one place.
Plans from €3.99 a month.
ATLAS estimates China Merchants Commercial Reit's fair value at about HK$1.60 per share (reasonable range: HK$1.17 to HK$2.20). At HK$0.975, the stock trades 39% below it.
It is calculated with a blend of a discounted cash-flow model and peer valuation multiples. Confidence in the estimate is medium. It is an estimate, not a promise: if the company's results change, so does its fair value.
ATLAS's model gives China Merchants Commercial Reit a 55% chance of finishing higher a month from now (21 trading sessions) than today: close to a coin flip.
In half of the simulated outcomes the price ends between HK$0.953 and HK$1.01; in 9 out of 10, between HK$0.907 and HK$1.06. Estimated annual volatility is 14%.
These are two different questions: fair value looks at the business (what it is worth given what it earns) and the odds look at the price over the next month. China Merchants Commercial Reit sits below fair value and its odds of rising over a month are close to a coin flip. An expensive stock can keep climbing and a cheap one can keep falling, which is why ATLAS shows the two readings separately.
Over the last 52 weeks 1503.HK has traded between HK$0.960 and HK$1.32. Today it is 26.1% below that high and 2% above its low.
Its beta is 0.72: it tends to move less than the market.
China Merchants Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust is a Hong Kong collective investment scheme authorized under section 104 of the Securities and Futures Ordinance. (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) and its units are listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited.
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Other companies in the same line of business:
About HK$1.60 per share according to ATLAS (reasonable range: HK$1.17 to HK$2.20). With the stock at HK$0.975, it is 39% below it.
55%: close to a coin flip. In half of the simulated outcomes, 1503.HK ends the month between HK$0.953 and HK$1.01.
China Merchants Commercial Reit's market capitalization is HK$1.1B. We do not show a P/E because it has no positive earnings to base one on.
Yes. 1503.HK's current dividend yield is 3.57% at today's price (HK$0.975).
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer
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