ATLASATLAS fair value
$32.10
Below fair value · 12% discount
Range: $18–$40Fair valuePrice
GEO Group (GEO)
GEO Group stock price today, ATLAS forecast and fair value
Industrials · Security & Protection Services · NYSE
$28.27▲ +2.54%
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026 · USD
Chance of rising in 1 month
49%
that it ends higher than today in 21 sessions
0%coin flip 50%100%
This is just the summary. See everything on GEO Group in ATLAS
ATLAS's own quantitative analysis, all in one place.
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
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On GEO Group
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
- NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.
And for you
- ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
- AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
- Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
- Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
- Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.
Plans from €3.99 a month.
ATLAS estimates GEO Group's fair value at about $32.10 per share (reasonable range: $17.86 to $39.84). At $28.27, the stock trades 12% below it.
It is calculated with a blend of a discounted cash-flow model and peer valuation multiples. Confidence in the estimate is medium. It is an estimate, not a promise: if the company's results change, so does its fair value.
ATLAS's model gives GEO Group a 49% chance of finishing higher a month from now (21 trading sessions) than today: close to a coin flip.
In half of the simulated outcomes the price ends between $26.19 and $30.40; in 9 out of 10, between $22.94 and $34.70. Estimated annual volatility is 42%.
Price, last 12 months (weekly close)
Key numbers
- Market cap
- $4.1B
- P/E ratio
- 13.9
- 52-week high
- $33.17
- 52-week low
- $12.51
- Revenue (12 months)
- $2.8B
- Revenue growth (YoY)
- +8.6%
- Earnings growth (YoY)
- +727.3%
- Gross margin
- 0.0%
- Operating margin
- 11.2%
- Net margin
- 9.7%
- Return on equity
- 20.1%
- Free cash flow (12 months)
- $-3.6M
- Beta
- 0.78
What this means
These are two different questions: fair value looks at the business (what it is worth given what it earns) and the odds look at the price over the next month. GEO Group sits below fair value and its odds of rising over a month are close to a coin flip. An expensive stock can keep climbing and a cheap one can keep falling, which is why ATLAS shows the two readings separately.
Over the last 52 weeks GEO has traded between $12.51 and $33.17. Today it is 14.8% below that high and 126% above its low.
On the business: revenue grew 8.6% year over year; net margin is 9.7%; it trades at 13.9 times earnings.
Its beta is 0.78: it tends to move less than the market.
About the company
The GEO Group, Inc. is a diversified government services company that provides secure facility management, detention support, and community reentry services.
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Comparable companies
Other companies in the same line of business:
Frequently asked questions
What is GEO Group (GEO) fair value?
About $32.10 per share according to ATLAS (reasonable range: $17.86 to $39.84). With the stock at $28.27, it is 12% below it.
What is the chance GEO goes up next month?
49%: close to a coin flip. In half of the simulated outcomes, GEO ends the month between $26.19 and $30.40.
How big is GEO Group and what is its P/E ratio?
GEO Group's market capitalization is $4.1B. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 13.9: you pay $13.9 for each $1 of yearly earnings.
How volatile is GEO?
ATLAS estimates annual volatility at 42%. In a typical month, half of the outcomes end between $26.19 and $30.40.
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer