ATLASInvestment goal planner: what are the odds you reach your target?
The goals planner runs a Monte Carlo simulation on your savings plan and tells you the chance of reaching your target, instead of assuming a smooth average return.
What it does
You say what you have today, how much you add each month, how many years you have and the amount you want. ATLAS simulates the journey and reports the chance of reaching the goal, along with a poor, a middle and a good outcome.
This is more honest than a calculator that grows your money at a fixed 7%. Real returns arrive unevenly, and a bad stretch early on hurts a plan more than the same stretch late. The planner shows how often that matters for your plan.
Worked example with live data
Real ATLAS numbers, prices as of Oct 26, 2026.
Example: starting with $5,000, adding $200 a month for 10 years puts $29,000 in. With a portfolio volatility of 20%, 4,000 simulated paths reach $40,000 in 52% of cases. The middle outcome is $40,482; the poor case (10th percentile) is $24,100 and the good case (90th) is $71,416.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Total put in | $29,000 |
| Target | $40,000 |
| Bad case | $24,100 |
| Middle outcome after 1 year | $40,482 |
| Good case | $71,416 |
| Chance of reaching the target | 52% |
How ATLAS calculates it
For every strategy ATLAS runs 4,000 monthly paths with a fixed random seed, so you see the same numbers each time you open the page. You can base it on typical strategy types or on your current portfolio, whose risk comes from the real volatility of your holdings. For horizons beyond three years it uses the long-run return of about 7% a year rather than a 30-day signal.
You can express the result in today's money (3% yearly inflation) and let your monthly contribution grow every year. Goals are saved in your browser.
Limits you should know
Return and risk for each strategy type are rough historical assumptions, not predictions. The planner does not model taxes, fees or changes in your income.
Where it sits in the plans
The goals planner is available on every plan.
Run it on your own numbers
Create an account to use this tool with your stocks, your amounts and your horizon.
Get started →Plans from €3.99 a month.
Frequently asked questions
How do I calculate whether I will reach my investment goal?
Use a simulation, not a fixed rate. Enter your current savings, monthly contribution, years and target, and look at the probability of reaching it plus the range around the middle outcome.
What is a Monte Carlo retirement or savings calculator?
It is a tool that runs thousands of random but plausible return paths for your plan and counts how many reach your goal.
What return does the planner assume?
About 7% a year in the long run for stocks, with volatility taken from your portfolio or from the strategy type you choose. These are assumptions you should challenge.
Can I include inflation?
Yes. You can show results in today's money using 3% yearly inflation, and make your contribution grow every year.
Related tools
- Monte Carlo simulationA Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of random but realistic price paths and reads the outcomes as a distribution, so you see how wide the possibilities are instead of one guess.
- Portfolio builderThe ATLAS portfolio builder turns your rules (how long, how much risk, which markets) into three concrete portfolios you can compare side by side.
- Daily lessonsATLAS lessons are short on purpose: around two minutes each, one idea, one question, and numbers taken from real stocks and, once you sign in, from your own portfolio.
Stocks used in this example
Open any of them to see the full public page, with fair value, odds and a one-year chart:
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates come from statistical models and public data; they can be wrong and past results do not predict future ones. Disclaimer